The changing trends of HIV/AIDS in an ethnic minority region of China: modeling the epidemic in Liangshan prefecture, Sichuan Province.

OBJECTIVE This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. METHODS Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data (from 1995 to 2010) were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. RESULTS The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV (PLHIV; to 136 617), increased HIV prevalence (2.51%), and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate (per 10 000) was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate (per 10 000) from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per 10 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. CONCLUSION Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan.